Qfirst Risk Assessment Report: Evaluating the Risk of the USA Ceasing Services with EU Countries
A Short Warning Story – Deepfake ? You can tell us within 3 years
In 2028, EuroSecureTech, a fast-growing cybersecurity firm in Belgium, had built its business on a foundation of American cloud services, payment gateways, and AI-powered tools. They relied on AWS for hosting, Microsoft for productivity, and Tesla’s Starlink for remote operations.
One morning, an unexpected presidential tweet and a Musk-led policy shift changed everything. The U.S. announced immediate restrictions on cloud services for non-compliant EU businesses, citing “economic sovereignty.” At the same time, Musk’s AI company locked European users out of their essential automation services, demanding a “global alignment fee.”
Overnight, EuroSecureTech’s systems collapsed—their emails stopped working, customer transactions failed, and their AI-driven threat detection platform went dark. Attempts to migrate data were met with delays and fines. With no quick alternative, the company lost millions in contracts and weeks of productivity.
The CEO, once confident in their “future-proof” strategy, now realized the real risk: they had never prepared for a world where US tech giants could simply pull the plug.
Lesson learned?
Business leaders must diversify dependencies and ensure their companies are resilient against policy shifts, billionaire mood swings, and geopolitical power plays.
Is your business Trump & Musk-proof? Better check now before the next policy tweet changes your fate. 🚀
This risk assessment sample provides a detailed analysis of potential risks and consequences if the United States (USA) ceases providing digital, financial, and technological services to European Union (EU) countries. This assessment includes critical infrastructure, economic dependencies, regulatory impacts, and mitigation strategies.
Key Areas of Risk Assessment:
A. Political and Economic Risk
- Geopolitical tensions leading to policy-driven service restrictions.
- Economic sanctions or trade restrictions affecting service continuity.
- Impact on multinational corporations operating between the USA and EU.
B. ICT & Digital Services Risk
- Disruption of cloud computing and data storage services (e.g., AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud).
- Suspension of cybersecurity services from US-based providers (e.g., Palo Alto, Proofpoint, CrowdStrike).
- Impact on software licensing agreements (e.g., Microsoft, Oracle, Adobe, Salesforce).
- Termination of social media, advertising, and digital analytics services.
C. Financial Services & Payment Processing Risk
- Disruptions in banking operations relying on US financial networks (e.g., SWIFT, Visa, Mastercard, PayPal, Stripe).
- Restriction on EU banks using US-based fraud detection and compliance systems.
- Loss of financial transaction monitoring tools needed for AML (Anti-Money Laundering) compliance.
D. Supply Chain and Cloud Dependencies
- EU-based companies relying on US suppliers for IT infrastructure.
- Outsourced IT development and operational support from US firms.
- Possible termination of security patching and critical system updates.
E. Data Privacy, Compliance & Legal Impact
- Non-compliance with GDPR due to sudden cessation of data processing in the USA.
- Transfer of personal and corporate data becoming illegal due to regulatory disconnect.
- Termination of Privacy Shield frameworks impacting transatlantic data flow.
F. Impact on Critical Infrastructure
- Energy sector reliance on US-based industrial control system providers.
- Healthcare sector relying on US-based software solutions for patient data management.
- Telecommunications networks using US-developed technology and equipment.
3. Risk Likelihood & Impact Analysis: Each risk area has been evaluated based on:
✅ Likelihood of occurrence (Low, Medium, High)
✅ Impact severity (Minimal, Moderate, Critical)
✅ Existing mitigations and response plans
✅ Contingency measures for high-impact risks
| Risk Area | Likelihood | Impact Severity | Mitigation Strategy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Political & Economic Risk | Medium | High | Strengthen EU-US diplomatic negotiations |
| ICT & Digital Services Risk | High | Critical | Develop EU-based cloud infrastructure |
| Financial Services Risk | High | High | Strengthen alternative payment networks |
| Supply Chain Dependencies | Medium | High | Increase local supply chain resilience |
| Data Privacy & Compliance | High | Critical | Develop independent EU compliance frameworks |
| Critical Infrastructure | Medium | High | Develop EU-based solutions for critical industries |
Proposed Mitigation Strategies:
- Diversification of Service Providers: Encouraging EU-based alternatives for ICT, cloud, and financial services.
- Regulatory Adjustments: Ensuring alignment between EU and US policies to reduce regulatory conflicts.
- Strengthening EU Cybersecurity Infrastructure: Reducing reliance on US cybersecurity tools.
- Emergency Transition Plans: Creating rapid migration strategies for digital and financial systems.
- Stakeholder Engagement: Coordinating with businesses, regulators, and government entities.
5. Equipping the SOC and IT Consultancy with Fully EU-Based Products & Services: To eliminate reliance on US services, the following solutions should be implemented:
✅ Cloud & Data Storage: Transition to EU-based cloud providers such as OVHcloud (France), Hetzner (Germany), and Scaleway (France).
✅ Cybersecurity Solutions: Replace US-based cybersecurity tools with Stormshield (France), ESET (Slovakia), and Rohde & Schwarz Cybersecurity (Germany).
✅ Firewall Solutions: Adopt European firewall vendors like Stormshield, Clavister (Sweden), and SECUI (EU-based solutions) instead of Palo Alto.
✅ Endpoint Protection & Antivirus: Utilize EU cybersecurity firms such as Bitdefender (Romania), ESET, and F-Secure (Finland).
✅ Secure Communications & Email Security: Replace Microsoft Outlook and Google Mail with Tutanota (Germany) or ProtonMail (Switzerland).
✅ Financial Payment Systems: Transition away from Visa/Mastercard by integrating SEPA Instant Payments, European Payment Initiative (EPI), and European blockchain-based transaction systems.
✅ Compliance & Data Governance: Use Atos (France), Infosec Global (Switzerland), and EU-compliant SIEM solutions to replace Splunk or IBM QRadar.
✅ Operational IT & Support Services: Ensure that all SOC operations, managed services, and consultancy are operated through EU-based providers.
✅ AI & Automation: Adopt EU-based AI solutions such as Aleph Alpha (Germany) and EU-driven automation tools.
Next Steps:
- Conduct a detailed risk matrix for each affected sector.
- Identify priority actions to ensure business continuity in case of service cessation.
- Develop an incident response plan to handle sudden disruptions.
- Engage policy makers and industry leaders to assess legislative and strategic measures.
